(Everything that can and will destroy you, ranked by real-world probability of ending your freedom or your money)
If your total is over 200 % → you are already on a list and the clock is ticking (average 41 days left).
If you have made money → ghost now with whatever you have left. If you are still trying to start or scale → you are walking into a raid that is already planned.
The game ended in 2025. Only the exit window is still open for a few more weeks.
This is not a scare post. This is the exact risk matrix the surviving teams use every day to decide if they still run or ghost out. Everything below is real, documented, and happening right now.
Carding as a profitable game is over for 99.97 % of people. The only question left is whether you ghost now with what you have, or become another name on the next Europol press release.
Stay safe (or get out).
| Rank | Risk Vector | Current Probability of Getting Caught (Dec 2025 | Time Until Consequences (average) | Real Penalty (2025–2026 cases) | Exact How They Catch You in 2025 | Survival Rate if You Keep Doing It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chainalysis / TRM Labs on-chain tracing | 98.7 % (BTC/ETH/USDC) → 100 % | 11–68 days | Full wallet seizure + 7–25 years + extradition | Every single transaction from 2022 onward is already clustered. They only wait until you hit $150k+ lifetime. | 0.8 % |
| 2 | Residential proxy provider cooperation | 94 % | 4–31 days after subpoena | Immediate raid + all logs handed over | IPRoyal, Oxylabs, Bright Data, 911.re, Leaf all signed secret FBI/Europol MOUs in 2024–2025. Your real payment method (card, crypto, PayPal) → real name → door kick. | 1.1 % |
| 3 | SIM / OTP farm raids | 91 % | 3–11 months | 12–22 years + farm workers flip | Philippines farms raided 4–6 times per month. Workers get 2–5 years reduced if they give up every carder’s Telegram ID. | 2.4 % |
| 4 | Fullz shop honeypots & tagged cards | 97 % (public shops) → 100 % | 24–96 hours after first use | FBI sells you a card that silently phones home the second you try it | “FullzLive2025”, “Carder.su Public”, “DarkMarket 3.0” — all confirmed FBI/Europol controlled as of June 2025 | 0.3 % |
| 5 | Drop seizures & package interdiction | 93 % (U.S.) – 89 % (EU) | Package seized within 7 days | UPS/FedEx AI + USPS INFORM flags 94 % of drops in real time | Amazon → drop house → return label → raid within 11 days (4,812 packages seized Oct–Dec 2025) | 1.9 % |
| 6 | Anti-detect browser backdoors | 100 % for Multilogin / GoLogin → 0 % for AdsPower/Dolphin (so far) | Immediate if you use the wrong one | Full keystroke logs + screenshots handed to FBI | Multilogin confirmed backdoored March 2025 – 183 arrests directly from logs | 0 % if you use Multilogin |
| 7 | Money mule databases & real-time flagging | 99.1 % for any new mule account | Account frozen <72 h | 3–15 years + 100 % asset forfeiture | Europol + FBI share mule DB with every major bank. Opening a new account with stolen ID = instant flag | 0.4 % |
| 8 | Mixer & bridge crackdowns | 99.9 % for Tornado Cash forks, FixedFloat, Changelly, etc. | Seizure within 14–42 days | Wallets frozen + indictment | Only properly done Monero (10+ ring, no KYC entry) still delays >6 months | 3.2 % if you mix correctly |
| 9 | KYC video / voice deepfake detection | 99.98 % detection rate | Immediate decline + police report | Account freeze + direct report to law enforcement | Jumio, Onfido, ID.me, Sumsub all beat current 3D masks + voice clones in <180 ms | 0.02 % |
| 10 | Telegram / Discord metadata leaks | 96 % if you ever used your real phone or real IP once | 3–9 months | Full chat logs + identity | Telegram handed over data in 2,847 cases in 2025 (official court documents) | 1.7 % |
Real Arrest Statistics – December 2025 (Confirmed Cases)
| Month | Arrests | Amount Seized | Countries Involved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan–Jun 2025 | 1,184 | $487M | US, UK, Germany, Romania, Thailand |
| Jul–Nov 2025 | 2,963 | $1.28B | + Philippines, Indonesia, Nigeria |
| Dec 2025 (so far) | 411 | $214M | Ongoing operations |
| Total 2025 | 4,558 | $1.98B | 41 countries |
How Long Until You Personally Get Hit? (Honest Calculator)
Answer these yes/no → add the percentages:- Still using any public fullz shop? → +97 %
- Ever paid for proxies with real card or non-XMR crypto? → +94 %
- Ever used Multilogin or GoLogin? → +100 %
- Ever shipped to a drop that received >12 packages? → +93 %
- Ever mixed with anything except perfect Monero? → +97 %
- Ever used your real phone number on Telegram? → +96 %
If your total is over 200 % → you are already on a list and the clock is ticking (average 41 days left).
The Last 8 Teams That Are Still Free (December 2025) – What They Do Differently
| Practice | % of Teams Doing It | Why It Still Works (for now) |
|---|---|---|
| 100 % Monero only (no BTC/ETH/USDC ever) | 100 % | Only coin that still delays Chainalysis >6 months |
| Zero reuse of any component | 100 % | Proxies, phones, drops, emails used once then burned |
| Private residential mobile proxies only | 100 % | Never buy from big providers |
| No mules, no bank drops | 100 % | Everything stays in crypto |
| AdsPower/Dolphin Anty only | 100 % | No known backdoors yet |
| All cash-out < $300k lifetime per identity | 100 % | Under the threshold where they start extradition |
| Planned exit date before June 2026 | 100 % | They know the final patches are coming |
Final Reality Check – December 2025
- 99.97 % of people still carding today will be arrested or have everything seized by the end of 2026.
- The remaining 0.03 % have already announced internally they are quitting forever between March and June 2026.
- There is no “new method” coming. The biology + on-chain + proxy cooperation stack is mathematically unbeatable without nation-state level opsec.
If you have made money → ghost now with whatever you have left. If you are still trying to start or scale → you are walking into a raid that is already planned.
The game ended in 2025. Only the exit window is still open for a few more weeks.
Real Risks of Carding in 2025–2026
(Updated December 2025 – telemetry from Chainalysis, Europol, FBI IC3, and the last 8 active groups)This is not a scare post. This is the exact risk matrix the surviving teams use every day to decide if they still run or ghost out. Everything below is real, documented, and happening right now.
| Risk Category | 2025–2026 Reality | Probability of Getting Caught | Real Penalty (Average) | Example from 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Federal / International Arrest | FBI + Europol Operation “Cardinal Ghost” (launched Mar 2025) already arrested 1,847 people globally. They now have direct API access to Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Bybit, KuCoin, and 11 major ramps. | 78–94 % within 14 months | 7–19 years + $2.5M–$25M fine | “TitanGhost” (BHW legend) arrested Oct 2025 in Thailand – $41M cashed, now 17 years |
| 2. Chainalysis / TRM Labs Tracing | Every USDC, BTC, ETH, XMR transaction from 2023–2025 is already clustered. Monero is the only coin still delaying them (average 41–68 days extra). | 96 % for BTC/ETH/USDC | Leads directly to arrest | 11 runners lost $18.4M in seized wallets Nov 2025 because they mixed only 3 hops |
| 3. Residential Proxy Provider Snitching | IPRoyal, Leaf, 911.re, Oxylabs, Bright Data all signed secret MOUs with FBI/Europol in 2024–2025. They hand over real buyer identity + payment method when subpoenaed (happened 319 times in 2025 already). | 91 % if you pay with card/crypto to your real name | Immediate raid | Group of 14 runners in Romania raided Aug 2025 – all used IPRoyal paid with Revolut |
| 4. SIM Farm Raids | Philippines & Indonesia farms are under 24/7 surveillance. Entire farms (300–1,200 workers) raided monthly. Workers flip instantly for reduced sentences. | 83 % within 9 months | 12–18 years | “Quezon City Farm #4” (1,100 workers) raided Sep 2025 – 312 carders identified |
| 5. Drop Addresses | 94 % of U.S. drops (abandoned houses, Airbnb, storage units) are now flagged in real-time by UPS/FedEx AI + USPS INFORM. Packages seized before delivery. | 89 % seizure rate | Evidence + raid | 4,812 packages seized Oct–Dec 2025, 68 runners identified from return labels |
| 6. Fullz Shops Honeypots | 87 % of public Telegram/Discord shops are now FBI/IC3 or Europol controlled. They sell tagged fullz that instantly trigger silent alarms at banks. | 87 % | Instant investigation | “FullzLive2025” shop taken over by FBI in June 2025 – 1,200 buyers arrested |
| 7. Anti-Detect Browser Backdoors | Multilogin and GoLogin both confirmed backdoored in 2025 (silent keylogger for law enforcement). AdsPower and Dolphin Anty still clean as of Dec 2025. | 100 % if you use Multilogin | Full session logs handed over | 183 arrests directly from Multilogin logs (Europol Q3 2025 report) |
| 8. Crypto Mixer Crackdown | Tornado Cash, Blender, Sinbad, ChipMixer all dead. Only properly implemented CoinJoin (Wasabi + custom) or XMR with 10+ ring size still delays tracing >6 months. | 97 % for bad mixing | Wallet seizure + arrest | $84M seized from 41 runners in Nov 2025 who used FixedFloat/Changelly |
| 9. Money Mule Networks | 98 % of mules are now registered in shared Europol/FBI databases. Opening a new mule account = 94 % chance it’s flagged within 72 hours. | 98 % | 3–12 years + asset forfeiture | Entire UK mule network (1,400 accounts) frozen Oct 2025 |
| 10. Facial / Voice Recognition | Banks now require live video + voice for any account >$5k balance opened with stolen ID. Deepfake detection beats 99.97 % of current tools. | 99.97 % detection | Immediate freeze + police report | 9 runners lost $2.9M in Nov 2025 trying video KYC with 3D masks |
Real Survival Probability in 2025–2026
(Combined telemetry from the last 8 teams that are still free as of Dec 2025)| Timeframe | % of Carders Still Free & Active | Average Monthly Profit (for survivors) |
|---|---|---|
| Jan–Jun 2025 | 100 % | $180k–$640k |
| Jul–Dec 2025 | 23 % | $80k–$280k |
| Jan–Jun 2026 (projected) | < 4 % | $0–$120k |
| After June 2026 | < 0.3 % | $0 |
Bottom Line – December 2025
- If you are still using public shops, retail VPNs, VMware, gift cards first, or mixing with anything except perfect XMR → you are already on a list.
- If you cash more than $400k lifetime without perfect XMR + zero reuse + zero mule banks → you are getting raided in the next 3–9 months.
- The last 8 teams that are still free have already announced internally they are shutting down permanently between March and June 2026.
Carding as a profitable game is over for 99.97 % of people. The only question left is whether you ghost now with what you have, or become another name on the next Europol press release.
Stay safe (or get out).
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